Policy Brief

Somalia is currently navigating a severe and multifaceted macroeconomic shock, characterized by a sharp, sudden rise in inflation. This inflationary environment is not the result of a single variable, but rather a complex confluence of global geopolitical shocks, domestic supply-side constraints, and the country’s structural dependence on imports. The unexpected escalation of the Iran conflict in late February 2026 served as the primary catalyst, triggering an immediate and aggressive spike in global oil prices. Given the interconnected nature of global energy markets and maritime logistics, this shock rapidly transmitted into the Somali economy. Within a matter of days, domestic fuel prices in Mogadishu surged by over 100%, climbing from $0.60 to $1.50 per litre. This energy shock has created widespread, aggressive cost-push inflation across all criticalsectors, most notably in transport, food distribution, and imported consumer goods.

In order to continuously inform policy, the Somalia National Statistics Office launches the first in a series of policy briefs designed to provide policy actors with the crucial information they need to address challenges in their respective policy environments. The first edition of this is a policy brief on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2024.